Polymarket keeps Aug. 31 US–Iran ceasefire odds at 51.5% after 7 nights

Polymarket retains Aug. 31 US–Iran ceasefire odds at 51.5% after 7 nights

Seventh Night time of US–Iran Exchanges Retains Polymarket Ceasefire Ladder Low Close to-Time period, Close to-Coinflip by Aug. 31

Polymarket merchants are pricing a 51.5% probability {that a} US–Iran “efficient ceasefire” is in place by the August 31 rung, on $615,750 in matched quantity. The most recent catalyst is recent reporting that the 2 sides have exchanged assaults for a seventh consecutive evening, and the ladder pricing exhibits the place merchants draw the road between “quickly” and “by late August.”

Key Takeaways

Polymarket’s main rung is “by August 31” at 51.5% Sure (48.5% No).After information of a seventh straight evening of exchanges, the curve nonetheless costs low near-term ceasefire odds whereas retaining a near-coinflip by Aug. 31.The market is lively and resolves by 2026-08-31 23:59 UTC; the previous 24h exhibits -2.0pp with a reversal flagged.

A dwell replace report says the US and Iran have exchanged assaults for a seventh consecutive evening, extending the present run of hostilities. The merchandise frames the state of affairs as ongoing and unresolved within the close to time period.

Odds Ladder & Liquidity Test: $615,750 Matched as July 18 at 2% Sure vs Aug. 31 at 51.5% Sure (-2.0pp, reversal_detected)

It is a price-ladder market: every date is its personal Sure/No contract on whether or not an “efficient ceasefire” is achieved by that deadline, not a single wager on which date will occur. The curve is steep on the entrance finish—July 18 is 2.0% Sure / 98.0% No and July 24 is 14.5% Sure / 85.5% No—whereas later rungs transfer towards a coin flip, with August 14 at 32.5% Sure / 67.5% No and August 31 main at 51.5% Sure / 48.5% No. Regardless of $615,750 in quantity, the headline rung is flat on the snapshot (51.5% vs 51.5%), and the 24h/7d learn is barely decrease at -2.0pp with “reversal_detected: true,” suggesting latest two-way repricing moderately than a one-direction drift. The historic abstract additionally exhibits the most recent odds (51.5%) sitting under the typical of the final 5 factors (55.9), per a modest pullback whilst consensus is tagged “steady,” which inserts a market that agrees on “not imminently” however is cut up on “by late August.”

Watch whether or not pricing compresses between the August 14 (32.5% Sure) and August 31 (51.5% Sure) rungs—tightening would indicate merchants are shifting chance mass towards a narrower timeline. Additionally look ahead to adjustments within the 24h change metric and whether or not the “reversal_detected” flag persists as new info arrives earlier than the 2026-08-31 23:59 UTC decision deadline.

What Merchants Watch Subsequent on Polymarket: Associated Macro and Crypto Contracts to Hedge Geopolitical Threat Shocks

Past the ceasefire ladder, merchants typically scan adjoining Polymarket contracts that reprice the identical threat from totally different angles and timelines. Huge-volume sentiment is concentrated in 71.5% on “Will the U.S. invade Iran earlier than 2027?” ($44,192,504) and 89.5% on “Will the Iranian regime fall earlier than 2027?” ($22,319,841), whereas the near-term transport channel is closely skewed with 98.75% on “Strait of Hormuz visitors returns to regular by July 31?” ($17,595,438). Longer-horizon political continuity additionally has a transparent favourite at 77.35% for “Iran chief finish of 2026?” ($30,410,638), giving merchants a number of methods to hedge or categorical views as headlines hit.

Odds Pattern

WindowChange (pp)24h-2.07d-2.0
Implied odds (final 48h)2550Odds %August 31August 14July 31July 24

By the Numbers

Platform: PolymarketMarket: US x Iran Efficient Ceasefire by…? (2 week pause)Contract kind: Worth strike ladder: every rung has separate Sure/No; Sure means the spot worth is above that USD strike at settlement.Decision window: Aug 31, 2026 (UTC)Standing: Energetic (open for buying and selling)Quantity: ~$615,750

High strike rungs

StrikeYesNoAugust 3151.5percent48.5percentAugust 1432.5percent67.5percentJuly 3122.5percent77.5percentJuly 2414.5percent85.5%

+1 extra strikes not proven

Associated Information

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