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Glassnode outlined a proximity-weighted cost-basis framework that turns CBD into support-resistance indicators and proximity variations of MVRV, NUPL and premium.
Glassnode has revealed a brand new on-chain framework that turns Price Foundation Distributions into compact assist and resistance indicators by weighting close by provide extra closely than distant provide. The October 20, 2026 methodology is meant to point out the place tradeable provide sits relative to identify, and to restate acquainted valuation instruments equivalent to MVRV and NUPL on a proximity foundation, in line with Glassnode.
Proof and context
Within the put up, authored by Vicky Yang, co-founder at Fountainhead Digital and revealed by Glassnode on Tue, 20 Oct 2026, the agency argues that conventional cost-basis measures are helpful however incomplete as a result of they will underweight close by provide clusters that worth is more than likely to check. The proposed Proximity Assist–Resistance framework, or PSR, addresses that hole by assigning exponentially decaying weights to 100 cost-basis quantiles in line with distance from spot, with the decay scaled by the 30-day rolling commonplace deviation of worth, the article says.
Beneath the tactic, proximity assist is the weighted provide beneath spot and proximity resistance is the weighted provide above spot. Glassnode defines the Proximity Assist Index as PSI = PS / (PS + PR) and the Proximity Resistance Index as PRI = PR / (PS + PR), which implies the 2 sequence sum to 1. The background materials provided with the article says PSI above 0.5 signifies extra proximity-weighted provide beneath spot than above it, whereas PSI beneath 0.5 signifies the other. The identical proximity weighting is then used to compute a proximity realized worth, from which proximity MVRV, proximity NUPL and Proximity Premium are derived.
The article presents historic examples by which shifts in PSI preceded modifications in development. Glassnode says BTC moved from roughly 29,000 to 26,000 between late July and mid-September 2023 whereas PSI remained principally beneath 50%, then PSI stabilized above 50% in October earlier than worth superior into the low 40,000s by December. It cites one other instance from February to April 2025 by which PSI moved from the high-30% space to the high-50% space whereas BTC traded close to comparable worth ranges, earlier than a later rally. On the draw back, the article factors to late 2025 into January 2026, when BTC revisited about 85,500 on Dec. 18 and 86,600 on Jan. 25 whereas PSI fell from 57.5% to 48.7%, adopted by a decline towards 65,000. It additionally describes a separate deterioration in PSI from the high-60% space to the low-40% space between mid-April and late Might 2026, related to a drop into the low-60,000s.
Glassnode additionally says it examined the method in regressions for BTC and ETH throughout a number of forward-return horizons, evaluating fashions that included latest worth momentum alone with fashions that added one on-chain metric at a time. In line with the article, the proximity-based measures added extra explanatory energy than short-term holder aggregates throughout horizons and each belongings, with Proximity Premium described as statistically important on the 1% stage for each BTC and ETH. The put up doesn’t present the complete regression tables within the provided textual content, so the underlying pattern design and coefficients usually are not accessible right here.
The methodology is designed for the present market construction, Glassnode says, as a result of deeper derivatives markets and a bigger base of artificial publicity could make worth motion extra two-sided and prolong consolidation phases inside broader traits. The agency frames PSR and the associated proximity valuation measures as instruments for figuring out the place close by provide might act as assist or overhead resistance, however the materials provided with the article describes them as indicators, not ensures of buying and selling outcomes.
