Citigroup revised its stablecoin market forecast upward to $1.9 trillion by 2030, however warned that institutional adoption stays at simply 0.5 on a scale of 0 to 10, in keeping with a report printed on Sept. 25.
The banking big raised its base case projection from $1.6 trillion in its April 2025 forecast, citing accelerated momentum from regulatory readability and elevated integration of the cost community. The bull case situation now reaches $4 trillion, up from $3.7 trillion.
David Cunningham, head of technique and partnerships for digital belongings at Citi Companies, acknowledged:
“Stablecoin issuance quantity is up 40% this yr as govt orders, the GENIUS Act, and main platforms take away friction.”
The revised projections are primarily based on three major drivers. First, partial deposit substitution within the US and abroad accounts for 45% of the bottom case, with Citi modeling 2.5% of 2030 US financial institution deposits shifting to stablecoins.
Second, continued crypto market enlargement drives 40% of development by means of 20% annual issuance will increase. Third, 15% comes from banknote substitution, significantly 10% of abroad US forex holdings and a pair of.5% of home banknotes.
The present stablecoin provide reached $292 billion as of Sept. 25, up from $224 billion initially of the yr. Transaction volumes now method $1 trillion month-to-month on an adjusted foundation, practically double year-ago ranges.
However company enthusiasm lags projections. Catherine Gu, head of institutional consumer options at Visa, characterised institutional stablecoin adoption at “perhaps 0.5 on a scale of 0 to 10,” noting that severe curiosity throughout banks and asset managers stays restricted.
The report additionally discovered that the majority mainstream corporates keep “curious fairly than enthusiastic” about stablecoins. Massive corporations already safe favorable banking phrases and sooner funds, which reduces the stablecoin’s enchantment for high-value transactions.
Citi believes financial institution tokens, together with tokenized deposits and deposit tokens, might seize bigger transaction volumes than stablecoins by 2030, doubtlessly exceeding $100 trillion yearly.
These bank-issued tokenized devices supply acquainted regulatory frameworks and simpler integration with present treasury methods.
The challenges for the stablecoin ecosystem recognized within the report embody fragmentation throughout a number of blockchains, privateness issues on public networks, and uncertainty concerning accounting therapy.
With out money equal recognition below IAS7, stablecoins stay much less engaging to company treasurers.
The report concluded that, regardless of regulatory progress, together with the passage of the GENIUS Act and the institution of worldwide frameworks in Hong Kong and the UAE, institutional adoption nonetheless requires addressing interoperability, scalability, and belief points that at the moment restrict enterprise-scale deployment.
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