Bitcoin ended the third quarter with its strongest quarterly efficiency because the remaining three months of 2024, as renewed demand for US spot exchange-traded funds helped it get well from its yearly low.
The cryptocurrency gained almost 43%, rising from $58,562 initially of July to $83,621 by the top of September, in keeping with CoinMarketCap.
Regardless of the rebound, it remained 33.7% under its all-time excessive of $126,198, reached on October 6, 2025.
The Crypto Concern & Greed Index mirrored the shift in sentiment, climbing from largely “worry” readings in July to round 74 by the top of September, throughout the “greed” vary.
ETF Flows Reverse Second-Quarter Withdrawals
US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded about $6.34 billion in web inflows through the third quarter, reversing almost $5 billion in outflows from the earlier three months.
The restoration accelerated because the quarter progressed. The funds attracted $172 million in July, $3.52 billion in August and $2.65 billion in September. Their largest day by day influx in August got here on August 20, when the merchandise added $606.3 million.
That interval additionally introduced a wave of liquidations in bearish leveraged positions. Brief sellers have been compelled to purchase Bitcoin to shut their trades, including to the upward transfer because the cryptocurrency gained greater than $10,000 over a number of days.
ETF flows, nevertheless, don’t present a clear measure of directional institutional demand.
CoinShares Head of Analysis James Butterfill famous within the interview for Cointelegraph that some skilled buyers use BlackRock’s IBIT for foundation trades, shopping for the ETF whereas shorting Bitcoin futures to seize the distinction between spot and futures costs.
Company purchases offered one other supply of demand. Technique resumed accumulating Bitcoin after a ten-week pause, buying 4,603 BTC for $369.7 million in late August.
Two subsequent acquisitions introduced its holdings to 847,666 BTC by September 27. The subsequent check is whether or not sustained spot and ETF demand can exchange the short-term shopping for created by quick liquidations.
“Other than exterior macro numbers, I need to see sustained spot and ETF flows,” Nansen Senior Analysis Analyst Nicolai Sondergaard advised Coindesk.
Treasury Yields Stay a Fourth-Quarter Constraint
The rally additionally adopted the US Treasury’s determination to extend buybacks of longer-dated authorities debt, which pushed yields and the greenback decrease in August.
Circumstances subsequently tightened after the Federal Reserve raised rates of interest in September and the ten-year Treasury yield climbed above 5%. Softer August inflation knowledge later decreased expectations of one other enhance in October.
However, elevated nominal and actual yields stay a headwind by growing the return obtainable from lower-risk property.
Close to-term indicators are much less uniformly bullish. Bitcoin stays in a bull market however is “exhibiting indicators of fatigue,” CryptoQuant Head of Analysis Julio Moreno wrote in a report cited by The Block. He positioned preliminary assist close to the 365-day shifting common at $80,000.
Different analysts recognized $80,000–$82,000 as the primary assist space and $87,000–$88,000 as speedy resistance. Deribit knowledge confirmed blended short-term positioning, with merchants alternating between demand for draw back safety and publicity to a doable October rally.
Citi takes a extra bullish view over an extended horizon. The financial institution raised its 12-month Bitcoin goal from $82,000 to $113,000, citing renewed ETF demand, stronger crypto-market exercise and a extra supportive macroeconomic outlook. Its forecast assumes that funding flows proceed at a slower however steadier tempo.
The fourth-quarter outlook will rely on whether or not sustained ETF and spot demand can offset increased yields as soon as the short-covering impulse fades.
This text was written by Tanya Chepkova at www.financemagnates.com.
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