Grayscale is utilizing money circulate as a metric to display screen DeFi tokens following the crypto market’s downturn because the starting of the 12 months. In its report “Information to Shopping for the Dip: Valuing Crypto With Money Flows”, up to date on June 16, 2026, Grayscale makes use of Aave as a case research for DeFi lending valuation and means that Hyperliquid, Aave, Uniswap, Sky, and Maple are displaying indicators of relative worth primarily based on value a number of evaluation.
10/ The massive image: crypto is repricing from narrative → fundamentals
Protocols with actual income, disciplined capital allocation, and clear token economics are outperforming
Grayscale flags $HYPE, $AAVE, $UNI, $SKY, and $MAPLE as displaying sturdy relative worth on this… pic.twitter.com/4E9PlFRAT4
— Grayscale (@Grayscale) June 17, 2026
Grayscale’s Money-Stream Valuation Thesis
Grayscale locations money circulate on the middle of valuing crypto belongings with clear financial exercise, particularly DeFi protocols that generate charges from lending, derivatives buying and selling, DEXs, or stablecoins. For this group, acquainted instruments from conventional finance comparable to DCF, value multiples, and comparable evaluation turn into extra related.
A notable level in Grayscale’s strategy is whether or not success on the protocol stage interprets into worth on the token stage. Giant TVL or quantity just isn’t sufficient; tokenomics, governance, and capital allocation decide whether or not that payment stream helps token holders or stays restricted to protocol exercise.
Aave is the first case research of the report. Grayscale estimates the protocol may generate roughly $60 million in earnings in 2026, with a good worth market cap for AAVE of round $1.2–1.5 billion if making use of a fintech a number of of 20–25x. In a base case with further regulatory readability and adoption of tokenized belongings, Grayscale presents a good worth of round $175 for AAVE inside one 12 months.
The 5 Tokens in Focus
Grayscale names Hyperliquid, Aave, Uniswap, Sky, and Maple as initiatives that fall inside the identical cash-flow valuation framework, however symbolize completely different sectors of DeFi: derivatives, lending, DEXs, stablecoins/CDPs, and institutional credit score. DeFiLlama information present that this group collectively generates vital charges, although worth accrual mechanisms and ranges of alignment with the token differ.
DeFi cash-flow metrics of 5 initiatives. Supply: Grayscale Analysis, DeFiLlama.
Aave
Aave is the first case research of the report and the clearest instance inside the DeFi lending group. This protocol options massive liquidity scale, clear monetary information, and a price accrual mechanism a lot clearer than previous-generation governance tokens.
Hyperliquid
Hyperliquid represents the perp DEX group that’s producing charges on the largest scale in DeFi. The undertaking’s payment supply primarily comes from derivatives buying and selling, making Hyperliquid one of the distinguished circumstances within the cash-flow belongings group monitored by Grayscale.
Uniswap
Uniswap is without doubt one of the oldest and most influential DEXs within the Ethereum ecosystem, now expanded to a number of different networks. The protocol generates a considerable amount of charges from swapping actions, however for UNI, the important thing factors to observe are the payment change, buybacks, or burns carried out by way of governance.
Sky
Sky, the ecosystem developed by MakerDAO, represents the stablecoin and collateralized lending sector. SKY’s narrative is tied to the demand for stablecoin borrowing, on-chain collateral belongings, and mechanisms comparable to buybacks or staking rewards.
Maple
Maple is a smaller however notable title within the institutional credit score sector. In comparison with Aave, Maple has a narrower scale, however its mannequin specializing in institutional credit score offers the protocol a definite profile inside the DeFi lending group.
Market Context
Grayscale’s analysis comes after a interval of sharp crypto market correction because the starting of the 12 months, when buyers are wanting not just for deeply discounted tokens but additionally for belongings with clearer valuation fundamentals. For DeFi, the query of “shopping for the dip” is steadily shifting to: which protocol is producing charges, how sustainable is that payment portion, and does the token really profit.
DeFiLlama data roughly $52.2 million in charges inside 24 hours, $1.67 billion in 30 days, and $24.91 billion in a 12 months on its charges dashboard. That scale helps cash-flow evaluation turn into a extra sensible filter for DeFi, as an alternative of simply TVL, incentives, or cyclical narratives.
For protocols like Aave, Hyperliquid, Uniswap, Sky, and Maple, the important thing level to look at isn’t just the worth decline of the token however their capacity to keep up charges, income, and mechanisms to switch worth again to token holders.
Dangers and Caveats
Regardless of the applicability of sure conventional valuation frameworks, DeFi tokens should not shares. Token holders do not need the identical authorized rights as shareholders, and a protocol’s payment stream might be allotted very in another way relying on governance, tokenomics, and treasury coverage.
The dangers for every mannequin are additionally distinct. Aave faces lending dangers and DAO regulatory dangers; Uniswap relies on the payment change; Hyperliquid is delicate to derivatives buying and selling exercise; Sky depends on stablecoin and collateral demand; Maple bears institutional credit score dangers. Moreover, DeFi nonetheless faces good contract danger, oracle danger, liquidity, and governance modifications.
What Comes Subsequent
Grayscale’s report positions Aave because the clearest litmus check for valuing DeFi utilizing money flows: the protocol should preserve charges, retain liquidity, and switch treasury coverage into measurable worth accrual for AAVE.
For Hyperliquid, Uniswap, Sky, and Maple, the questions are comparable however distinctive to every mannequin: will perp charges maintain up when quantity cools down, will UNI’s payment change progress additional, can Sky’s stablecoin demand preserve momentum, and may Maple develop institutional credit score with out growing credit score danger. These would be the deciding elements on whether or not cash-flow valuation is merely a brand new perspective after a downturn or turns into a extra sturdy valuation framework for DeFi tokens.
