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Trumponomics #8: Finding On-Chain Certainty in the Chaos of “Trumponomics”: Analyzing Three Types of Yield-Bearing Crypto Assets | by OKG Research | The Capital | Apr, 2025

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Because the Federal Reserve started its rate of interest hike cycle in 2022, the idea of “on-chain rates of interest” has regularly entered the mainstream. Confronted with a risk-free fee of 4–5% in the actual world, crypto traders have began reexamining the yield sources and danger buildings of on-chain belongings. A brand new narrative has quietly emerged — yield-bearing crypto belongings — that seeks to create monetary merchandise on-chain to “compete with the macro rate of interest atmosphere.”

Nonetheless, the yield sources of those belongings differ extensively. From money flows generated by the protocol itself to yields primarily based on exterior incentives, and even the incorporation of off-chain rate of interest methods, the underlying buildings replicate vastly completely different sustainability and danger pricing mechanisms. We will roughly categorize yield-bearing belongings in decentralized purposes (DApps) into three sorts: exogenous yields, endogenous yields, and people linked to real-world belongings (RWA).

The rise of exogenous yields is a mirrored image of the early progress logic of DeFi — the place, within the absence of mature person demand and actual money circulation, the market substituted with “incentive illusions.” Very like early shared experience platforms that used subsidies to draw customers, after Compound launched “liquidity mining,” ecosystems like SushiSwap, Balancer, Curve, Avalanche, and Arbitrum launched large token incentives to purchase person consideration and locked belongings.

Nonetheless, these subsidies are basically short-term operations the place capital markets pay for progress metrics, moderately than a sustainable income mannequin. They grew to become the usual for the chilly startup of recent protocols — whether or not Layer 2, modular blockchains, or LSDfi and SocialFi — the motivation logic is identical: counting on new funds or token inflation, resembling a “Ponzi” construction. Platforms use excessive returns to draw deposits, then delay payout by complicated “unlocking guidelines.” These annualized yields of a whole lot or hundreds of p.c have been usually simply tokens “printed” by the platform.

The Terra collapse in 2022 was a main instance: the ecosystem supplied as much as 20% annual returns on UST stablecoin deposits by the Anchor protocol, attracting many customers. The returns have been primarily depending on exterior subsidies (Luna Basis Reserve and token rewards), not actual revenue from the ecosystem.

From historic expertise, as soon as exterior incentives diminish, giant quantities of backed tokens are offered, damaging person confidence, usually resulting in a downward spiral in TVL (Complete Worth Locked) and token costs. In line with Dune information, following the DeFi Summer season of 2022, roughly 30% of DeFi initiatives noticed their market worth drop by over 90%, usually on account of extreme subsidies.

If traders are to seek out “steady money flows,” they should be cautious about whether or not an actual worth creation mechanism exists behind the yields. Promising future inflation to pay immediately’s returns is finally not a sustainable enterprise mannequin.

Merely put, protocols generate revenue by “actual actions” after which redistribute that revenue to customers. They don’t depend on issuing tokens to draw customers, nor do they rely upon subsidies or exterior injections of capital. As a substitute, they earn income by precise enterprise actions corresponding to lending curiosity, transaction charges, or penalties from default liquidations. These revenue streams are considerably much like “dividends” in conventional finance, and are sometimes called “dividend-like” crypto money flows.

The important thing characteristic of one of these yield is its closed-loop and sustainability: the logic of producing revenue is evident, and the construction is more healthy. So long as the protocol is operational and has customers, it’s going to generate income with out counting on market sizzling cash or inflation incentives to take care of operations.

Due to this fact, understanding how a protocol “creates worth” permits for a extra correct judgment of the knowledge of its yields. We will categorize one of these revenue into three major archetypes:

Lending Unfold Mannequin: This is among the most typical and simply understood fashions in early DeFi. Customers deposit funds into lending protocols like Aave or Compound, which match debtors with lenders. The protocol earns the unfold between borrowing and lending charges. That is basically the identical because the “deposit-loan” mannequin in conventional banks — curiosity from debtors is partially distributed to lenders as income. This mechanism is clear and environment friendly, however its yield is carefully tied to market sentiment. When total danger urge for food declines or market liquidity shrinks, rates of interest and yields additionally are inclined to fall.Charge-sharing Mannequin: This yield mechanism is nearer to a profit-sharing construction in conventional corporations, the place shareholders or particular companions obtain returns primarily based on income distribution. On this framework, the protocol shares a part of its working revenue (corresponding to transaction charges) with customers who present assets to assist the protocol, corresponding to liquidity suppliers (LPs) or token stakers.

For instance, decentralized exchanges like Uniswap distribute a portion of the transaction charges to customers who present liquidity. In 2024, Aave V3 on Ethereum’s mainnet supplied an annualized return of 5%-8% for stablecoin liquidity swimming pools, whereas AAVE stakers might earn over 10% annualized returns throughout sure durations. These revenues come fully from the protocol’s inside financial actions, corresponding to lending curiosity and transaction charges, with out counting on exterior subsidies.

In comparison with the “lending unfold” mannequin, the “fee-sharing” mannequin is extremely depending on the protocol’s market exercise. In different phrases, its returns are instantly tied to the protocol’s enterprise quantity — the extra trades, the upper the rewards; the less trades, the decrease the revenue. Due to this fact, its stability and skill to resist cyclical dangers are sometimes not as sturdy because the lending mannequin.

3. Protocol Service Mannequin: That is probably the most structurally progressive kind of endogenous revenue in crypto finance, with logic much like how conventional infrastructure service suppliers cost purchasers for key providers.

For instance, EigenLayer makes use of a “re-staking” mechanism to offer safety assist for different methods and receives compensation for doing so. This yield doesn’t depend on lending curiosity or transaction charges however is derived from the market pricing of the protocol’s service capabilities. It displays the market worth of blockchain infrastructure as a “public good.” These returns are extra numerous and will embrace token rewards, governance rights, and even future unrealized returns, showcasing sturdy structural innovation and long-term potential.

In conventional industries, this may be in comparison with cloud service suppliers (like AWS) charging enterprises for computing and safety providers, or monetary infrastructure establishments (corresponding to custodians, clearinghouses, and score businesses) offering belief ensures for methods and incomes income. These providers could circuitously take part in end-user transactions however are important to the general system’s functioning.

On-Chain Actual Curiosity Charges: The Rise of RWA and Curiosity-Bearing Stablecoins

Increasingly capital out there is now looking for a extra steady and predictable return mechanism: on-chain belongings anchored to real-world rates of interest. The core logic behind that is to hyperlink on-chain stablecoins or crypto belongings to off-chain low-risk monetary devices, corresponding to short-term authorities bonds, cash market funds, or institutional credit score, thus sustaining the pliability of crypto belongings whereas acquiring “certainty in rates of interest from the normal monetary world.” Consultant initiatives embrace MakerDAO’s allocation to T-Payments, Ondo Finance’s launch of OUSG (linked to BlackRock ETFs), Matrixdock’s SBTB, and Franklin Templeton’s tokenized cash market fund FOBXX. These protocols try and “import” the Federal Reserve’s benchmark rates of interest onto the blockchain as a foundational yield construction. Because of this:

On the similar time, interest-bearing stablecoins, as a spinoff type of RWA, have additionally began to take middle stage. In contrast to conventional stablecoins, these belongings are usually not passively pegged to the greenback however actively embed off-chain yields into the tokens themselves. Typical examples embrace Mountain Protocol’s USDM and Ondo Finance’s USDY, which give day by day curiosity and derive their yield from short-term authorities bonds. By investing in U.S. Treasury payments, USDY affords customers a steady return, with an rate of interest near 4%, which is far increased than the 0.5% fee of conventional financial savings accounts.

These initiatives purpose to reshape the logic of utilizing the “digital greenback,” making it extra like an on-chain “interest-bearing account.”

With the connectivity of RWA, RWA+PayFi can also be a future state of affairs price watching: instantly embedding steady yield belongings into cost instruments, thus breaking the binary division between “belongings” and “liquidity.” On the one hand, customers can take pleasure in interest-bearing returns whereas holding cryptocurrencies, and however, cost situations don’t must sacrifice capital effectivity. Merchandise just like the USDC computerized yield account on Coinbase’s Base L2 (much like a “USDC as a checking account”) not solely enhance the attractiveness of cryptocurrency in precise transactions but in addition open up new use instances for stablecoins — reworking them from “{dollars} in an account” to “capital in energetic circulation.”

The evolution of crypto “yield-bearing belongings” displays the market’s gradual return to rationality and a redefinition of “sustainable returns.” Initially pushed by excessive inflation incentives and governance token subsidies, many protocols now give attention to self-sustaining mechanisms and integrating off-chain yield curves. The design is transferring away from a “capital-chasing” part, in the direction of extra clear and refined danger pricing. Particularly with macro rates of interest remaining excessive, crypto methods aiming to compete within the international capital market should construct stronger “return rationality” and “liquidity matching logic.” For traders looking for steady returns, the next three indicators can successfully assess the sustainability of yield-bearing belongings:

Is the supply of returns inherently sustainable?Actually aggressive yield-bearing belongings ought to generate returns from the protocol’s core actions, corresponding to lending curiosity or transaction charges. If the returns rely primarily on short-term subsidies or incentives, it turns into like a “recreation of musical chairs”: so long as the subsidies proceed, returns stay; as soon as they cease, funds go away. Any such short-term “subsidy” conduct, if changed into long-term incentives, can deplete undertaking funds and simply result in a downward spiral of reducing TVL (Complete Worth Locked) and token costs.Is the construction clear?On-chain belief comes from transparency. When traders transfer away from the acquainted atmosphere of conventional finance, backed by intermediaries corresponding to banks, how can they assess the scenario? Is the circulation of funds on-chain clear? Are curiosity distributions verifiable? Is there a danger of concentrated custody? If these points are usually not clarified, it ends in a “black-box” operation, exposing the system’s vulnerabilities. A monetary product with a transparent construction, publicly seen on-chain, and traceable mechanisms is the true underlying assure.Do the returns justify the real-world alternative price?With the Federal Reserve sustaining excessive rates of interest, if the returns of on-chain merchandise are decrease than Treasury invoice yields, it will likely be tough to draw rational capital. By anchoring on-chain returns to real-world benchmarks like T-Payments, the returns turn into not solely extra steady however might additionally function an “rate of interest reference” on-chain.

Nonetheless, even “yield-bearing belongings” are by no means really risk-free. Regardless of their steady return buildings, they nonetheless require warning concerning technical, regulatory, and liquidity dangers inside the on-chain framework. From whether or not the liquidation logic is ample, as to if protocol governance is centralized, as to if the asset custody preparations behind RWA (Actual-World Belongings) are clear and traceable, these components decide whether or not so-called “sure returns” might be reliably realized.

Furthermore, the marketplace for yield-bearing belongings could characterize a restructuring of the on-chain “cash market construction.” In conventional finance, the cash market performs a central function in funding pricing by its rate of interest anchoring mechanism. In the present day, the on-chain world is regularly establishing its personal “rate of interest benchmarks” and “risk-free returns,” making a deeper and extra structured monetary order.



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Tags: AnalyzingAPRAssetscapitalCertaintyChaoscryptoFindingOKGOnChainResearchTrumponomicsTypesYieldBearing
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