Tokenized gold has grown right into a roughly $7 billion market. By February 2026, Reuters reported that just about 20 gold-backed tokens had already reached near $6 billion in mixed market cap, greater than 4 occasions the scale of the market on the finish of 2024. Bitcoin, in the meantime, stays a trillion-dollar market of its personal.
The expansion of those two markets made me wish to revisit an concept I first explored in March 2025: what occurs whenever you cease measuring Bitcoin in {dollars} and begin measuring it in gold?
The concept got here from a dialog with Dr. Mark Richardson throughout one in all our Blockchain Banter discussions. Mark used the Carbon DeFi Simulator to backtest a Recurring Order buying and selling tBTC towards PAXG. Over a number of months, the technique produced roughly 25% ROI measured in gold. You may learn the unique article right here.
Bitcoin vs. Gold: A New Perspective
This time, I wished to check greater than whether or not Bitcoin and tokenized gold could possibly be traded straight. I wished to see how a lot the construction of the technique would have an effect on the outcome.
I ran two WBTC/XAUt methods over the identical three hundred and sixty five days of historic value motion. Each used the identical preliminary funding and the identical general value boundaries.
One produced 0.32% ROI above HODL.
The opposite produced 5.64% — 17.6 occasions the ROI.
TL;DR
Each methods:
Began with 1 XAUt and 0 WBTCBacktested utilizing three hundred and sixty five days of historic market dataTraded between 14.81 and 15.11 XAUt per WBTC
The primary used one shared vary for purchasing and promoting:
Concentrated Liquidity: 0.32% ROI above HODL
The second used separate purchase and promote ranges:
Recurring Order: 5.64% ROI above HODL
https://medium.com/media/917646f41bedb75a1ae1a9effb0928c0/href
Technique One: Concentrated Liquidity
The primary technique used one vary for each shopping for and promoting:
Purchase and promote: 14.81–15.11 XAUt per WBTC
Because the market strikes via the vary, the place steadily converts between XAUt and WBTC. If it sells WBTC because the market strikes upward and the market later reverses, it may purchase WBTC again round costs the place it just lately bought.
There isn’t any independently outlined purchase vary or promote vary. The identical vary handles each instructions.
Be aware that whereas this technique started with 1 XAUt, two tokens are typically required to create a Concentrated Liquidity place when the present market value is inside the chosen vary.
This specific technique started “out of the cash,” which means the market value was exterior its chosen vary. That allowed me to fund the place on a single aspect with 1 XAUt. The technique turned lively when the market later moved into the vary.
Outcome
0.32% ROI above HODL
The place traded the market and completed barely forward of merely holding the beginning asset.
Technique Two: Recurring Orders
The second technique used a Recurring Order with separate ranges for purchasing and promoting:
Purchase: 14.81–14.95 XAUt per WBTCSell: 14.97–15.11 XAUt per WBTC
As an alternative of permitting each actions to happen all through one shared vary, I gave both sides its personal instruction.
Purchase WBTC with XAUt within the decrease vary.
Promote that WBTC again into XAUt within the increased vary.
The technique additionally started with 1 XAUt and 0 WBTC. Not like an in-the-money Concentrated Liquidity place, a Recurring Order doesn’t require each side to be funded when it’s created.
Because the purchase order fills, the WBTC it acquires routinely turns into accessible to the promote order. Because the promote order fills, the XAUt proceeds return to the purchase order. The cycle can repeat at any time when the market strikes between the 2 ranges.
Outcome
5.64% ROI above HODL
That was 17.6 occasions the 0.32% generated by the Concentrated Liquidity place over the identical historic interval.
The Unfold Between the Two Ranges Was Solely 0.13%
The outcome turns into extra fascinating whenever you have a look at the unfold between the 2 ranges.
The very best purchase value was 14.95 XAUt per WBTC.
The bottom promote value was 14.97.
That may be a unfold of solely 0.02 XAUt per WBTC, or roughly 0.13%.
The 5.64% ROI above HODL didn’t come from setting a large unfold. It got here from repeatedly shopping for and promoting because the market moved via these separate ranges.
Further Options of Recurring Orders
Separate purchase and promote orders and customized unfold are solely two of the advantages of Recurring Orders on Carbon DeFi.
Either side can use a single mounted value or a spread of costs, and the costs, ranges and budgets may be outlined independently. Makers can fund one aspect or each side when the technique is created.
Recurring Orders will also be adjusted after they’re created. Makers can change their costs, add or withdraw funds, change technique kind, or pause and reactivate buying and selling with out withdrawing the complete place and creating a brand new technique.
Automated Recurring Restrict Orders Defined
Different key options embody:
Full or partial fillsIrreversible executionNo expiration100% value certaintyNo maker charges on stuffed ordersNo third-party dependencies, together with oracles, keepers, and hooks
What I Took Away From the Backtest
After I first explored buying and selling Bitcoin towards gold, I used to be enthusiastic about whether or not the connection between the 2 belongings could possibly be traded straight. Revisiting it confirmed how a lot the construction issues when you resolve to make that commerce.
Each methods used the identical pair, the identical beginning capital, the identical historic interval and the identical general value boundaries. The Recurring Order produced 17.6 occasions the ROI by separating the purchase and promote ranges and repeatedly rotating the proceeds between them.
A backtest can’t predict how a technique will carry out sooner or later. It may present how completely different costs, ranges, budgets and spreads would have responded to precise market motion earlier than capital is deployed.
On this case, the market and capital remained the identical. The directions modified, and so did the outcome — by 17.6x.
*In the event you’re utilizing AI brokers, attempt the Carbon DeFi MCP Server to arrange and handle methods like these. Your agent prepares the transaction; you evaluation and signal it.
Create automated onchain buying and selling methods utilizing any MCP-compatible agent
Advisable Reads
True DEX Vary Orders: Carbon DeFi vs. Present SolutionsAMMs vs. Onchain Orderbooks: What Modifications When Makers Management the Curve?Two Related Buying and selling Methods – Two Utterly Totally different Outcomes
Bancor
Bancor is a pioneer in decentralized finance (DeFi), established in 2016. It invented the core applied sciences underpinning the vast majority of immediately’s automated market makers (AMMs) and continues to develop the foundational infrastructure essential to DeFi’s success — specializing in enhanced liquidity mechanics and strong onchain market operation. All merchandise of Bancor, together with Carbon DeFi and the Arb Quick Lane, are ruled by the Bancor DAO.
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Buying and selling Bitcoin vs. Gold — Identical Market, Identical Capital, 17.6x the ROI was initially revealed in Bancor on Medium, the place persons are persevering with the dialog by highlighting and responding to this story.
