itcoin is liable to deeper losses as threat urge for food fades and macro stress builds, in response to Customary Chartered’s head of digital belongings analysis Geoff Kendrick.
In a notice reported on by Bloomberg, Kendrick mentioned weaker U.S. financial momentum and decreased expectations for Federal Reserve charge cuts have weighed on crypto markets. He added that falling digital-asset ETF holdings have eliminated a key supply of demand.
Kendrick warned bitcoin might drop to $50,000 and Ethereum might fall towards $1,400 earlier than stabilizing later within the yr. BTC trades close to $67,869 after reaching a 16-month low of $60,008 final week.
Customary Chartered lower its year-end bitcoin forecast by a 3rd, reducing its 2026 goal to $100,000 from $150,000. The financial institution cited deteriorating macro circumstances and the danger of additional investor capitulation.
Bitcoin has already suffered a significant correction, falling as a lot as 50% from its October 2025 document excessive at its worst shut on Feb. 5. Customary Chartered estimates solely half of BTC provide stays in revenue, a pointy decline although much less extreme than in prior bear cycles.
The financial institution pointed to an unsupportive interest-rate backdrop as a key headwind.
Markets have pushed again expectations for Fed easing, with traders now searching for the primary lower later within the yr. Kendrick mentioned uncertainty round future Fed management has added to warning.
ETF flows additionally stay a priority. Customary Chartered estimated bitcoin ETF holdings have dropped by virtually 100,000 BTC from their October 2025 peak. With a median buy value close to $90,000, many ETF traders now maintain unrealized losses, elevating the possibility of further promoting stress.
Regardless of the near-term downgrade, the financial institution maintained a constructive longer-term outlook. Kendrick famous that on-chain utilization knowledge continues to enhance and the present downturn has not triggered main platform failures, in contrast to the 2022 cycle that noticed collapses equivalent to Terra/Luna and FTX.
Customary Chartered continues downgrading Bitcoin
Again in December of final yr, Customary Chartered halved its forecasts, seeing Bitcoin at $100,000 by end-2025 and $150,000 by end-2026, whereas conserving a $500,000 goal pushed out to 2030. Bitcoin didn’t hit $100,000 by the tip of 2025.
The financial institution cited fading company treasury demand and slowing ETF flows on the time. Geoffrey Kendrick mentioned company accumulation has “run its course,” leaving ETF inflows as the primary driver.
Bitcoin is at the moment buying and selling close to $67,000, per Bitcoin Journal Professional knowledge.
