Bitcoin surged previous $121,000 at present, pushing in the direction of its all-time excessive because the fourth quarter of 2025 kicked off with renewed momentum for Bitcoin.
The rally follows a powerful September end, when Bitcoin gained about 5% to shut round $114,000 — a efficiency that considerably defied Bitcoin’s status for seasonal weak point.
Traditionally, when September has ended within the inexperienced, Bitcoin has typically gone on to submit outsized fourth-quarter beneficial properties. Knowledge from Bitcoin Journal Professional exhibits that in years reminiscent of 2015, 2016, 2023, and 2024, fourth-quarter rallies averaged greater than 50%.
That seasonal development has already earned October the nickname “Uptober” amongst merchants. Since 2015, the month has produced common beneficial properties of 21.8%, with November including one other 10.8%.
If historical past rhymes, Bitcoin might be on monitor to clear $150,000 earlier than the top of the yr.
Bitcoin all-time excessive coming?
In keeping with Bitcoin Journal Professional knowledge, Bitcoin has climbed almost 3% in 24 hours, advancing from round $117,500 to simply over $121,000. Over the past month, Bitcoin has notched a achieve of greater than 9%, rising from roughly $110,700.
On a year-to-date foundation, Bitcoin has delivered a return of 27%, underscoring its resilience regardless of ongoing volatility throughout broader markets.
With costs now lower than 3% away from the all-time excessive of over $124,000, it appears just like the stage is ready for a breakout if shopping for stress continues.
Bitcoin’s bullish momentum
This newest surge got here as conventional financial metrics reeled from the U.S. authorities’s shutdown at midnight after Congress did not cross a funding invoice. With Wall Road beneath stress and financial knowledge releases now on maintain, traders flocked to exhausting belongings.
This yr’s beneficial properties additionally construct on April’s halving occasion, which lower Bitcoin’s new provide in half — a milestone that has traditionally preceded vital upward stress on worth. On the identical time, key liquidity alerts are flashing inexperienced.
World M2 cash provide development, stablecoin issuance, and a rally in gold — which Bitcoin has typically tracked with a lag — all level to strengthening demand.
Citigroup analysts this week set a 12-month projection for Bitcoin at $181,000, citing strong inflows that would attain $7.5 billion by December.
“We’re extra optimistic on Bitcoin in comparison with Ether, because it captures an outsized portion of incremental flows into crypto markets,” Citi analysts wrote, including {that a} friendlier regulatory atmosphere may maintain momentum into 2026.
With Bitcoin already logging report highs in 2025, the fourth quarter now looms as a decisive stretch.
