Jefferies strategist Chris Wooden has eliminated Bitcoin from his long-term mannequin portfolio, citing quantum computing as a threat that weakens Bitcoin’s store-of-value framing for pension-style allocations. VanEck head of analysis Matthew Sigel flagged the change on X, calling it a notable “downgrade” from one of many Avenue’s most generally adopted international strategists.
Veteran Strategist Chris Wooden Exits Bitcoin
Wooden wrote that he’s not positioning for an imminent worth shock, however that the long-duration mandate is the place the quantum query bites. “Whereas GREED & worry doesn’t imagine that the quantum problem is about to hit the Bitcoin worth dramatically within the close to time period, the shop of worth idea is clearly on much less strong basis from the standpoint of a long-term pension portfolio,” Wooden wrote. “For that cause, GREED & worry will take away the ten% allocation to Bitcoin this week with 5% reallocated to gold and 5% reallocated to gold-mining shares.”
The transfer is framed as threat administration reasonably than a retrospective efficiency critique. Wooden famous that regardless of gold’s current outperformance versus Bitcoin, Bitcoin remained effectively forward since his mannequin first added it: Bitcoin had risen 325% since December 17, 2020, whereas gold bullion was up 145% over the identical interval.
In a be aware dated January 15, 2026, Wooden described how the quantum dialogue has moved from summary idea into one thing asset allocators are being requested to underwrite. “GREED & worry isn’t any pure mathematician,” he wrote, including that he has discovered himself pulled into conversations about “elliptic curves” due to “the rising focus in current months on the risk posed to the Bitcoin system by the arrival of quantum computing.”
His core declare is that the perceived timeline is compressing. He referenced rising concern that cryptographically related quantum computer systems might arrive “just a few years away reasonably than a decade or extra,” and argued that any credible risk to Bitcoin’s safety mannequin is “doubtlessly existential” as a result of it undermines the store-of-value idea that underpins the “digital various to gold” narrative.
Wooden’s mechanism is easy: what’s computationally infeasible as we speak might turn into tractable below CRQCs. He wrote that the present asymmetry, simple to derive a public key from a personal key, successfully not possible to reverse, might collapse, with the time to derive a personal key from a public key shrinking to “mere hours or days.”
Wooden mentioned the trade is already debating potential responses, together with whether or not to “burn” quantum-vulnerable cash to guard system integrity or to do nothing and settle for the likelihood that weak cash might be stolen by entities with CRQCs. He offered the dispute as a battle between preserving Bitcoin’s property-rights ethos and avoiding a coverage selection that appears confiscatory, including that one pc scientist he spoke with described the do-nothing stance as a “suicidal delusion.”
Wooden mentioned his pondering was knowledgeable by discussions with educated events and pointed to a Chaincode report as background studying, with out treating it as a near-term buying and selling set off.
VanEck’s Sigel Responds
Sigel’s takeaway was much less about whether or not quantum threat exists and extra about how totally different programs reply. When one person argued that quantum would wipe out financial institution accounts, e mail, and brokerage programs as effectively, Sigel dismissed that as “not a enough take anymore,” drawing a pointy distinction between improve paths and reversibility.
“Banks improve top-down; BTC requires years of consensus,” Sigel wrote. “Banks have an ‘undo’ button; BTC is finality-first.”
Sigel additionally linked the talk to a well-known fault line inside Bitcoin governance. Requested how consultant Wooden’s view is likely to be, Sigel mentioned that within the “Adam Again vs. Nic Carter” debate he’s “on Nic’s facet,” and described Wooden’s resolution as supporting proof. On the similar time, Sigel emphasised course of: he met Wooden in New York earlier than the be aware was printed and mentioned that though he disagreed with the conclusion, Wooden “got here to it truthfully.”
On positioning, Sigel mentioned he has “added quantum publicity” beforehand to VanEck’s Onchain Financial system ETF (NODE) and made small hedges, with a desire for “diversified” AI miners over “DATs / leveraged BTC,” whereas protecting spot BTC by way of an ETF as the biggest holding. He framed the quantum problem as “solvable” and akin to a “wall of fear like blocksize wars,” reasonably than a thesis-breaker.
At press time, BTC traded at $90,941.
Featured picture created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
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