Binance founder Changpeng Zhao, or extra generally known as CZ, cautioned towards concentrated Bitcoin bets throughout a Binance Clubhouse AMA in Bali. His feedback got here as Bitcoin stood about 49% beneath its all-time excessive, based on VanEck’s mid-August 2026 ChainCheck report.
VanEck stated Bitcoin closed at $63,549 on August 11, basically flat month over month, whereas 30-day realized volatility eased to 27.2% annualized, properly beneath the long-run common close to 80%. CZ has additionally stated the market’s conventional four-year cycle stays intact, putting his warning on focus alongside a continued give attention to the longer-term cycle framework.
CZ warned towards concentrated bets, based on the equipped official Binance account of the AMA. The account describes month-to-month dollar-cost averaging of 1% to 10% of revenue into high property, whereas not offering an in depth personalised allocation plan.
VanEck reported that Bitcoin traded in a comparatively slim $62,265 to $66,509 vary over the previous 30 days, after stabilizing from its June summer time low. The agency additionally famous that spot buying and selling quantity over that interval was down 27% month over month and ranked within the tenth percentile of its historical past.
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The Bitcoin 4-Yr Cycle, Backed by VanEck’s Numbers
On the four-year cycle, CZ stated the sample nonetheless holds strongly. He in contrast the present market with situations 4 years earlier, whereas acknowledging that figuring out the following main catalyst is troublesome.
VanEck’s cycle knowledge gives historic context for that view. The agency counts 4 earlier Bitcoin cycles since 2011 and stated it’s at the moment assessing the fifth. Excluding the thinly traded 2011 decline, peak-to-trough bear phases within the three later cycles averaged 12.7 months. VanEck stated Bitcoin was coming into the tenth month of its drawdown from the October 2025 peak.
Bitcoin Month-to-month Returns, Coinglass
Utilizing the full-sample common, VanEck stated the following accumulation part would start in September. Utilizing the common excluding 2011 locations that time in October or November. The agency stated it most well-liked to current the vary relatively than choose an earlier date, and it cautioned that previous efficiency doesn’t assure future outcomes.
VanEck’s capitulation dashboard confirmed 8 of 12 tracked indicators firing as of August 12. The agency characterised the readings as proof that Bitcoin was approaching, or might already be in, an accumulation part.
Nevertheless, it additionally described the historic forward-return report as combined: readings with 8 to 12 indicators firing beat Bitcoin’s baseline solely on the one-year horizon, and the underlying pattern was small and closely overlapping.
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Lengthy-Time period Holders Are Shifting Cash
VanEck’s on-chain knowledge confirmed that cash held for longer than a yr fell by about 356,000 BTC over 30 days, a 2.9% decline to 11.84 million BTC. The long-term holder share of circulating provide slipped to 59.1%, beneath 60% for the primary time in months.
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The motion was broad throughout the six long-term holding bands, although it was concentrated in youthful and middle-aged coin cohorts. Holdings within the one-to-two-year band fell by about 156,000 BTC, whereas the two-to-three-year band declined by roughly 76,000 BTC. In contrast, cash held for greater than 10 years fell by about 4,000 BTC.
VanEck stated the long-term base was churning greater than collapsing as a result of youthful cash crossing the one-year threshold changed an almost equal quantity of cash that moved. Nonetheless, the report described the web decline as the primary significant month-to-month drawdown within the long-term cohort in months and stated long-term holders had been distributing into the restoration.
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