Washington, United States, August twenty eighth, 2026, Chainwire
As prediction-market quantity hits document highs and regulators circle, identically worded midterm questions are buying and selling a number of factors aside relying on the venue. Predictions.io now tracks 9,700+ markets throughout Kalshi, Polymarket and Manifold in a single place – with free price and odds calculators so merchants can see what a worth truly prices them.
Prediction markets have by no means been greater, or extra contested. Kalshi, Polymarket and Polymarket US collectively posted a document $50.59 billion in mixed quantity in July, with Kalshi accounting for roughly 74.5% of the full. In the identical month, New York Metropolis opened a probe into each main venues, a Washington choose ordered Kalshi to halt most wagers within the state, and the CFTC started an inside overview of so-called “point out markets.”
Amid that scrutiny, a less complicated query has gone largely unexamined: when two venues listing the identical query, do they agree on the reply?
Usually, they don’t. On identically worded midterm markets tracked by Predictions.io, “Blue tsunami in 2026?” was priced at 44.5% on Polymarket and 36.0% on Kalshi. “Blue wave in 2026?” confirmed 82.5% in opposition to 74.0%. Each gaps are 8.5 proportion factors — on questions whose wording is similar on the 2 venues. Throughout a pattern of straight comparable binary markets stay on multiple venue, the median hole was greater than 4 factors, and practically half of the pairs differed by 5 factors or extra. (Costs as of 05:08 UTC on 28 August 2026; each venues’ stay costs are proven facet by facet on Predictions.io.)
These gaps matter to anybody quoting a single quantity. A market priced at 44.5% on one venue and 36.0% on one other doesn’t have one “market-implied chance” – it has two, and which one will get cited is unfair until the reader is instructed each.
“A single venue’s worth is an information level. The unfold between venues is the data. When the 2 greatest markets on the planet disagree by seven factors on the identical sentence, that disagreement is the story – and no one who runs a kind of markets is able to report it.” mentioned spokesperson of Predictions.io
Predictions.io aggregates markets from Kalshi, Polymarket and Manifold, matching equal questions throughout venues so the identical occasion might be in contrast straight. The platform at present tracks greater than 9,700 occasion pages throughout 23 classes together with US politics, economics, crypto, sport and geopolitics.
Alongside the comparability pages, Predictions.io publishes two free instruments:
● Payment Calculator — enter any commerce and see the price, complete outlay and efficient all-in worth on every venue, together with Kalshi’s 0.07 × P × (1−P) taker method and maker low cost in opposition to Polymarket’s zero-fee normal markets.
https://predictions.io/instruments/fee-calculator
● Odds Converter — convert American, decimal and fractional odds into implied chance and prediction-market costs, and see the vig-free line.
https://predictions.io/instruments/odds-converter
A direct venue comparability is out there at https://predictions.io/examine/polymarket-vs-kalshi, and stay midterms markets at https://predictions.io/foyer/us-politics.
Predictions.io operates no market and takes no place in any contract. It’s a information and comparability service, not an trade, dealer or funding adviser.
About Predictions.io
Predictions.io is an impartial aggregator of prediction markets, bringing costs from Kalshi, Polymarket and Manifold right into a single view so the identical query might be in contrast throughout venues. It publishes free instruments for merchants and journalists, together with a cross-venue price calculator and odds converter.
Customers can study extra about Predictions.io right here: https://predictions.io/
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