MicroStrategy remains to be the most important company holder of Bitcoin, sitting on roughly 649,870 BTC as of mid-November 2025. They purchased all of this for round 48.37 billion {dollars} whole, which places their common value at about 74,433 {dollars} per Bitcoin.
With Bitcoin dipping below 80k, issues are beginning to look uncomfortable for Michael Saylor and MicroStrategy. There may be additionally an actual threat that the corporate may very well be faraway from the Nasdaq-100 Index, which is what QQQ and plenty of tech-focused ETFs monitor.
Why? As a result of MSCI, one of many largest index suppliers on the planet, opened a session on whether or not corporations whose digital property (like Bitcoin) make up greater than roughly half of their whole property ought to nonetheless be categorized as regular working corporations. The ultimate resolution is predicted round January 15, 2026.
If MSCI decides to exclude these “digital asset treasury corporations,” MicroStrategy can be faraway from MSCI indices. Analysts warn that this might set off $ 2.8 to $ 11.6 billion in compelled passive promoting.
The likelihood of this occurring is estimated to be between 80% and 95%. Some analysts imagine the end result is already priced in, which could clarify a part of Bitcoin’s latest sharp drop.
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If MSCI removes MicroStrategy, passive outflows may attain roughly $ 2.8 billion. If Nasdaq-100, FTSE Russell, and others observe MSCI’s lead (which JPMorgan estimates at a 70 to 90 % probability), whole compelled promoting may attain $8 to $11 billion, roughly 15 to twenty % of MicroStrategy’s market capitalization.
Regardless of all of this, Michael Saylor continues to purchase and maintain Bitcoin. He sees it as a long-term treasury technique. Nonetheless, within the brief to medium time period, this example would pose a serious headwind for the inventory on account of compelled promoting, diminished liquidity, and more difficult situations for elevating capital.
What Will Occur to MicroStrategy if Bitcoin Falls Underneath $74,000?
With every part occurring proper now, the one factor that might actually assist MicroStrategy is that if Bitcoin holds up higher than it at present is. Nonetheless, it isn’t, and that’s the reason the chances of BTC dropping under 74k are fairly excessive.
If that occurs, MicroStrategy’s Bitcoin holdings would begin exhibiting an unrealized loss on paper. Since MSTR trades like a extremely leveraged Bitcoin proxy, the inventory would seemingly take one other main hit. It has already been sliding laborious in latest weeks, and mixed with the doable MSCI elimination, the state of affairs may get tough.
So is that this the top of MicroStrategy and Michael Saylor? No, completely not. There can be no compelled promoting or margin calls within the close to future. Most of MicroStrategy’s roughly 8 billion {dollars} in debt is in convertible notes that don’t mature till 2027 by way of 2032.
MicroStrategy has already survived far worse twice earlier than, particularly in 2022 when folks genuinely believed chapter was on the desk. At the moment, the corporate’s Bitcoin stack stays deeply worthwhile, its debt construction is the cleanest it has ever been, and the one vital new risk is index exclusion.
They’ll say we acquired fortunate.
— Michael Saylor (@saylor) November 20, 2025
That may harm the inventory due to compelled passive promoting. Nonetheless, it doesn’t threaten the corporate itself, nor does it drive them to promote their Bitcoin. Although it’s seemingly Saylor isn’t going anyplace. Lengthy reside Bitcoin.
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Key Takeaways
MicroStrategy faces actual strain from the MSCI index evaluation and a possible drop below 74k. However none of it forces them to promote Bitcoin or threatens the corporate’s survival.
MSTR may even see heavy compelled promoting and inventory volatility. But its debt is long-term, its BTC stack remains to be worthwhile, and Saylor stays absolutely dedicated to holding.
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