Bitcoin has kicked off the fourth quarter of 2025 with a robust rally, surging greater than 10% over the previous week — from round $109,000 on September 27 to over $122,000 immediately.
However Bitcoin might surge to recent all-time highs if the U.S. authorities shutdown continues, in keeping with Geoff Kendrick, head of digital belongings at Customary Chartered.
Kendrick believes that Bitcoin’s traditionally constructive correlation with U.S. Treasury time period premiums, suggesting the cryptocurrency might profit from extended fiscal uncertainty.
Kendrick famous that in extended market stress — situations that always favor digitally scarce belongings — Bitcoin has traditionally proven outstanding resilience. On this case, the extended stress comes from the U.S. authorities’s prolonged shutdown.
Customary Chartered’s forecast now targets Bitcoin at $135,000 within the close to time period, with a year-end projection of $200,000, signaling sturdy confidence within the token’s upside potential.
At present, bitcoin trades round $122,200, simply shy of its August all-time excessive of $124,480.
Bitcoin poised for a rally
The potential for an prolonged U.S. authorities shutdown provides one other layer of market uncertainty, usually influencing each equities and fixed-income devices.
For bitcoin, these situations might function a catalyst, reinforcing its position as a hedge in opposition to conventional market volatility.
Bitcoin has traded sideways in latest months, however key liquidity indicators recommend a breakout could also be close to. World M2 progress, stablecoin provide tendencies, and gold’s rally — which Bitcoin has intently tracked with a 40-day lag — all level upward.
JPMorgan analysts additionally see Bitcoin as undervalued relative to gold, estimating a theoretical upside to $165,000 if the “debasement commerce” — investing in belongings that hedge fiat forex threat — continues.
With September closing roughly 5% larger at $114,000, historic patterns recommend a robust potential for outsized positive factors in This fall, supported by rising retail and institutional curiosity in Bitcoin ETFs and custody options.
Information exhibits that in years comparable to 2015, 2016, 2023 and 2024, constructive September closes have been adopted by fourth-quarter rallies averaging greater than 50%.
